According to recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, foreign trade grew by 7.9% to USD$1.88 trillion in the first four months of 2022. Among them, exports over the period surged 10.3% year-on-year to USD$1.04 trillion, while imports hit USD$838.57 billion, growing 5% on a yearly basis.
On May 19th, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at a symposium held by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) that China’s manufacturing industry currently needs to import many key components, equipment, and raw materials every year, and needs to import a variety of agricultural products to meet the continuously evolving population. The expansion of China’s imported agricultural product market has become the consensus of the market.
“The Chinese economy is facing increasing downward pressures due to the domestic resurgence of COVID-19 cases,” the National Bureau of Statistics of China said on the 13th. However, China’s consumption is expected to sustain its recovery momentum as the impact of COVID-19 is gradually brought under control and supportive policies take effect, said the Ministry of Commerce of China on 19th.
According to data from the U.S. Meat Export Council, total US beef exports in 2021 surpassed previous records in volume and value, surpassing USD$10 billion for the first time. The data shows that beef exports to China/Hong Kong were strong in 2021, reaching USD$2.09 billion, accounting for about one-fifth of the total export value. The export volume also climbed 87% to 240,827 metric tons. There are forecasts that the growth potential of US beef exports is huge in the next few years, as China’s import demand is expected to increase by more than 30% in the next 10 years.
“China remains a top market priority for companies in the US, and many of them believe that it is important to remain competitive in the Chinese market to remain competitive globally,” said the American Chamber of Commerce in China in the 24th edition of the American Business in China White Paper on 17th. The document said that its members remain committed to the Chinese market.
On 31st, many enterprises in Shanghai were preparing to resume their operations from next month, as the city announced its latest plan on Sunday for resuming work and production on June 1st after the latest wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. This demonstrated that the government plan will further boost recovery in Shanghai.
The central government launched a new economic stimulus plan that includes 1.8 trillion U.S. dollars in funding for tax cuts, SME loans, investments in infrastructure projects, etc, and I estimate that the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan against U.S. dollars will go strong in the following 1-2 years to attract foreign financial investments while the U.S. continues to increase its interest rate, which will give Chinese buyers more purchasing power and motives to increase imports.